12 August 2026

27 Clubs Promoted to the Premier League Since 2017

That is the most consistent pattern in the whole dataset, and this is what it looks like up close. Every card carries its sample size and the years it covers.

Not one matched the win rate that got them up.

1. Zero from 27. On a sample that size the true rate could still be as high as about one in eight — but no club has managed it yet.

2. On average a promoted club keeps about two-fifths of its Championship win rate. Almost none land on the average, though: across the 27 it runs from 9% to 81%. The spread is the story.

3. The defence. A clean sheet in 18% of matches — fewer than one game in five.

4. The goals. 38% of matches end without one. More than one game in three.

5. The home record. Promotion is usually built on a strong one; up here the home win rate is 28%.

6. One thing improves. Their games produce MORE goals — over 2.5 lands 52% of the time, on 1,026 matches. They score less and concede more, and the games still go over.

7. Opening day, and roughly half of them fail to score in it.

8. The mirror image: an established side at home to a newly-promoted one wins 62% of the time, against a league-wide home win rate of 44%.